Ethiopia and Eritrea may go to war "in weeks"

Mon Nov 5, 2007 6:29am GMT

By Andrew Cawthorne
NAIROBI (Reuters) - Horn of Africa enemies Ethiopia and Eritrea may
return to war over their disputed border in a matter of weeks if there
is no major international push to halt them, an influential think-tank
warned on Monday.
A 1998-2000 war on the boundary killed 70,000 people and brought untold
hardship to two of the world's poorest nations.
Now analysts are warning of a repeat as troops build up ahead of an
end-November deadline by an independent boundary commission for Ethiopia
and Eritrea to mark out their border.
"The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next
several weeks is very real," wrote the International Crisis Group (ICG)
in a report on the growing crisis.
"A military build-up along the common border over the past few months
has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military
solution if hostilities restart -- more likely is a protracted conflict
on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic
humanitarian crisis."
The ICG urged the United States and the United Nations to flex their
muscles "to give both sides the clearest possible message that no
destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated."
Washington sees Ethiopia as its best ally in the region, but ties with
Eritrea have deteriorated so much it may put Asmara on its list of
terrorism sponsors for backing Somali Islamists.
The United Nations has a peacekeeping force of 1,700 people charged with
monitoring a security buffer zone on Eritrea's side of the 1,000-km
(620-mile) frontier. "International indifference of mistaken confidence
could cost the people of the Horn of Africa dearly," the ICG added.
The think-tank report came after Eritrea accused Ethiopia for the third
time in a week of planning an invasion, an allegation Addis Ababa has
termed an "absurd" fabrication.
"EXPLOSIVE SITUATION"
The ICG cited U.S. estimates that Eritrea had 4,000 soldiers, supported
by artillery and armour, in the "supposedly demilitarised TSZ" as well
as 120,000 troops nearby.
Despite an offensive against insurgents in its east, and a foreign
mission in Somalia where it is helping the government fight Islamist
rebels, Ethiopia also maintains 100,000 troops on its border with
Eritrea, the ICG added, quoting U.S. estimates.
"The situation could hardly be more explosive," it said.
The neighbours have been in dispute since the independent boundary body
awarded Eritrea the Badme town in a 2002 ruling.
Although it now says it accepts the ruling, Ethiopia is still insisting
on dialogue over implementation.
"Eritrea has right on its side on this point but has played its cards
very badly," the ICG said, referring to Eritrea's disputes with the
United Nations and expulsion of foreign staff.
"Ethiopia has played its hand skilfully. It has used its position as the
major power in the region to win U.S. toleration of its intransigence,"
it added.
"It would not be surprising if Addis Ababa believes an effort in the
near future to stage a coup in Asmara and use force against an Eritrean
government that has few friends would also be tolerated in Washington."
Both run by former rebel leaders, Ethiopia's 81 million population
dwarfs Eritrea's 5 million.
The ICG forecasts that if war breaks out, Ethiopia would seek to take
Asmara and Assab port to topple Eritrea's government.
Frustrated by lack of progress, the boundary commission says the nations
have until the end of this month to mark the border physically, or it
will fix the border on maps and let it stand.
Diplomats worry that date could prove a trigger.
The ICG took a swipe at both nation's authoritarian governments, calling
Eritrea "one of the most repressive regimes in Africa" and saying
Ethiopia has "no intention to genuinely democratise."